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The countdown would start as soon as the transient is created or updated.
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Running
set_transient()
on an existing transient value will restart the clock. Per the Codex page onset_transient()
:If a transient exists, this function will update the transient’s expiration time.
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According to the Transients API page, the expiration time is the maximum lifetime of a transient value. It may be deleted before the time is up, but it will never return its value after the time is up:
Transients may expire before the $expiration (Due to External Object Caches, or database upgrades) but will never return their value past $expiration.