Can you filter wp_dropdown_categories with terms meta?

There is no direct way, hence you’ll have to hack it. wp_list_categories calls get_terms internally. There’s a filter terms_clauses which will allow you to modify the WHERE conditions for getting the terms. Here’s how you can use it:

<?php
    add_filter('terms_clauses', 'term_filter', '', 1);

    function term_filter($pieces){

        //echo "<pre>";
        //print_r($pieces);
        //echo "</pre>";

        //You can change the entire SQL by examining the pieces array
        $pieces['where'] .= '<SQL to get the term meta>'; 

        return $pieces;
    }

    //Here's how $pieces looks like:
    Array
    (
        [fields] => t.*, tt.*
        [join] => INNER JOIN wp313_term_taxonomy AS tt ON t.term_id = tt.term_id
        [where] => tt.taxonomy IN ('category') AND tt.count > 0
        [orderby] => ORDER BY t.term_id
        [order] => ASC
        [limits] => 
    )
?>

Append your WHERE condition to the default WHERE condition. I’m not very good with SQL (honestly, I couldn’t find where term meta is stored!) hence didn’t write the query. For more reference you can check the file taxonomy.php (line. no. 1311) and these 2 posts: Link 1, Link 2.

Hope it helps!