Use ancestors:
$ancestors = array_reverse( get_post_ancestors( $post->ID ) ); // reverse ancestors to make it more intuitive
if ( isset( $ancestors[0] ) ) {
if ( isset( $ancestors[1] ) ) {
// 3rd tier
$parent_id = $post->post_parent;
} else {
// 2nd tier
$parent_id = $post->ID;
}
$args = array(
'depth' => 1,
'child_of' => $parent_id,
);
wp_list_pages( $args );
}