The signup page has validation hooks. How about something like this?
add_filter('wpmu_validate_blog_signup','set_blog_creation_limit');
function set_blog_creation_limit($result) {
$blogs = get_blogs_of_user($result['user']->ID);
if (count($blogs) > 2 )
$result['errors']->add('blogname', __('You have already registered the maximum amount of blogs!'));
return $result;
}