Paginate Links in Wp Query Shortcode

Your $args variable would be helpful.

As I can see, you are creating custom WP_QUERY, so get_query_var('paged') isn’t related to your $the_query = new WP_QUERY, but to global $wp_query.

Possible solution:
declare global $paged and add it to $args = array( /* your args here*/, 'paged' => $paged );, also change your get_query_var('paged') to $paged

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