The user your server is running as needs to be able to write and modify the files in WordPress core. Namely that the updater was told: Permission denied
when it tried to change wp-admin/includes/update-core.php
.
What the permissions will need to be for this to work are different from server to server. This article talks more about file permissions and the relevant folders, and may be helpful, but there is no definitive “set it to 123 and it will work” answer.
My personal recommendation would be to never use the auto-updater, and update using:
- Git
- SVN
- Secure FTP
Simply placing the new version of WordPress over the top of your old version should do the job. It will ask to update your database on the next visit to the admin interface. This will not make the built in auto-updater work in the future however, but it will upgrade your copy manually.
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