I think what you are asking to do is not possible. At least not cleanly. Why?
Because the actual rendering of sidebars and widgets happens in the template files. get_sidebar() gets called from a template file which then calls the WP_Widget::widget() method for whichever widgets are assigned to the sidebar in question. But this happens after the wp_head event is called (usually from the header.php template) and scripts queued for the head are printed. So you can’t know whether your widget will be actually be loaded by a given theme’s templates for the page body on any given page until after the <head> has already been sent.
The most you can know is that if a theme template calls a sidebar in which the widget is active, it will be printed to the page output — which is what is_active_widget() tells you.
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