WordPress sets the php timezone to UTC for internal calculations. So at 4pm PST, date() will be producing a date that reads 10pm UTC. Hence the event is considered past.
There are two ways to resolve this.
-
(The preferred method) Store dates in the database in UTC. Handle all date calculations in UTC, and convert to the desired timezone on output (frontend and back).
-
Use
date_i18n()for creating the date to query (as this will set the date according to your blog timezone).
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