I forget exactly if the plugin slug is a reliable method to get the url, it might be in most cases but not all due to how plugins are named.
You can query the api @wordpress.org for the plugins xml file which also contains the download link.
For example:
$plugin_slug = 'akismet';
$return_plugin_info = "http://api.wordpress.org/plugins/info/1.0/$plugin_slug.xml"
It will return an XML file you can parse for the download link, which is in <download_link type="string">the link...akismet.zip</download>
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