How can I easily verify a core or plugin update has not broken anything?

In your specific case, I don’t think the answer is a technical one (see my comment on the question for more details).

For everyone else, the answer to “How can I easily verify a core or plugin update has not broken anything?” is automated testing. That’s the whole purpose of automated testing, because it’s unreasonable to think you can test everything in a non-automated fashion.

Here’s a great getting started guide on automated testing with WordPress: http://make.wordpress.org/core/handbook/automated-testing/

If you’re not willing to go down that road, at the absolute least, my suggestion would be to have your clients list the 3 most important things about their site, and include in the contract that you will test those 3 things with every update. It doesn’t guarantee that something won’t break, but at least you’re resting easy knowing that what matters most to them (by their own admission), like contact forms, didn’t break.

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