page 1 is not paged

do you mean you want a conditional for page 1 of all home queries which have more than one page as result?

try to use $wp_query->max_num_pages;

example:

if (is_home() && $wp_query->max_num_pages > 1 && !is_paged()) echo '/page/1'; else echo "https://wordpress.stackexchange.com/";

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