Can I upgrade a plugin to a specific version?

Using WP-CLI you can specify this as described in the official documentation.

$ wp plugin update <plugin>

Using either of the following arguments

--minor

Only perform updates for minor releases (e.g. from 1.3 to 1.4 instead of 2.0)

--patch

Only perform updates for patch releases (e.g. from 1.3 to 1.3.3 instead of 1.4)

--version=<version>

If set, the plugin will be updated to the specified version.